The race to replace Barack Hussein Obama is several months along now, and the talk of Sarah Palin's candidacy is abundant. As the President of the very prestigious Urban Poverty Law Center in Cedar Grove, Tennessee, I have some unique insights into politics and have some advice for Ms. Palin.
First, let me say I am a great supporter of Sarah Palin. I like her look and her mind, and I like her way of doing things. Somehow a ninny from Wasilla, Alaska
manages to out Fox all the brilliant minds in the media with her shenanigans. The tour of American Historic sights was brilliant. The book, and now the movie all brilliant. Now for the meat of this coconut:
Sarah Palin will be the first woman president of the United States of America and she will win not as a republican candidate, but as an independent. The reasons she can run and win as an independent are many fold.
Already she has been vetted by the despicable press and the Palin supporters are not swayed by media's dislike for her. In fact many Americans pull for and like the candidates most hated by a press that is usually supporting the wrong candidate for the American taxpayer.
Sarah Palin does not need to be a target in a long drawn out primary season where the press will be taking daily pot shots at her and her family. An independent run works to her advantage in at least two significant ways. First her exposure to the snipes from the press is limited, and second, she only has to raise half as much money to campaign for the top spot and she can spend her primary season prepping for the Presidential debates with Obama and Mitt, and hopefully Ralph Nader, and targeting her adds to be critical of current policy or what ever debate topic comes up.
The way I see it Palin will garner 42 to 46% of the vote, leaving 54 to 58% of the vote to be split between Obama and who ever the media allows the republicans to choose. This means Obama must win 80 to 85% of that non Palin vote to win.
The most likely outcome would be Palin 44%, Obama 33%, and Romney 23%. How did I come up with these numbers? Palin gets the teaparty, church attending middle American vote, Obama keeps his hard core democrat vote, and Romney gets the hard core Republican in name only vote. The 44% for Palin includes a good many of the Reagan democrats as well. She will be elected by the great unwashed masses of middle Americans in the over-taxed/fly-over country! Run Sarah, run, but only as an Independent!
Palin could increase her winning margin by choosing a vice presidential candidate wislely, such as Marcus Rubio, or Herman Cain and thereby eek out a plurality of 50.0045%. Most of this siphones off Mitt, and not Obama, whose Acorn votes will not come close to making up the difference for him this time around.
There you have it. Jack Maybolt's formula for Sarah Palin's successful run for president as an independent. I am a political genius. I make Karl Rove seem like a piker, whatever that is.
Jackson Delano Maybolt, PhD
"All politics is crap!" Mother Maybolt, 1929-2008
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